AFL · ROUND 6 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 50
GCS to win, 94% chance
GCS 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 40.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca | C | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 97 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 98 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 89 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 103 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 87 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 66 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 79 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 85 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 48 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 95 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 76 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 96 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 89 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 70 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 63 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 55 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 41 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 76 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 64 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 37 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 31 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 29 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 73 |
| Ben King | FF | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 79 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 35 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 49 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 101 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 52% | 33% | 151 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 100 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 117 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 109 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 86 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 109 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 79 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 81 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 77 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 52 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 67 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 71 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 61 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 63 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 89 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 73 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 58 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 60 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 50 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 64 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 79 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 55 | - | - | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 61 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 54 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 41 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 56 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 57 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 45 |
| Archer May | FPR | 46 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 81 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 29 |