AFL · ROUND 6 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 50
GCS to win, 94% chance
GCS 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 40.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 5.7 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 4.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 9.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.1 | - | - | 61% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.3 | - | - | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.2 | - | - | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.9 | - | - | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 5.2 | - | - | 89% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 6.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.7 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 8.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Archer May | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 8.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 1.4 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.3 | - | - | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 0.9 | - | - | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |