AFL · ROUND 6 · MARVEL STADIUM
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 40
HAW to win, 90% chance
HAW 90%10% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 36.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.4 | - | - | 96% | 82% | 52% | 22% | 5% | 24.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 23.4 | - | - | 93% | 73% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 14.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 22.4 | - | - | 91% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 17.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 20.9 | - | - | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 20.5 | - | - | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 19.6 | - | - | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 19.3 | - | - | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.2 | - | - | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 19.1 | - | - | 79% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 18.7 | - | - | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 18.6 | - | - | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 17.9 | - | - | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 15.9 | - | - | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 15.7 | - | - | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WL | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.0 | - | - | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.4 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| William McCabe | HFFL | 10.9 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFR | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 8.8 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 6.7 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 29.9 | - | - | 99% | 94% | 78% | 49% | 21% | 35.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.4 | - | - | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | 19.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 21.7 | - | - | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | 28.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.7 | - | - | 89% | 62% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 18.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.1 | - | - | 79% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 19.0 | - | - | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 16.9 | - | - | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 16.6 | - | - | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 16.2 | - | - | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.7 | - | - | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.5 | - | - | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 14.8 | - | - | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 14.4 | - | - | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 14.1 | - | - | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 13.7 | - | - | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 13.6 | - | - | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.1 | - | - | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 12.7 | - | - | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 9.7 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.7 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |