AFL · ROUND 6 · MARVEL STADIUM
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 40
HAW to win, 90% chance
HAW 90%10% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 36.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 92 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 99 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 87 | - | - | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 50 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 86 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 62 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 85 | - | - | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 67 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 85 | - | - | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 115 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 84 | - | - | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 65 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 46 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 81 | - | - | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 66 |
| Conor Nash | C | 80 | - | - | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 82 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 80 | - | - | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 79 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 86 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 67 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 72 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 84 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 54 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 86 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 77 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 71 |
| William McCabe | HFFL | 59 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 35 |
| Flynn Perez | WL | 54 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 51 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 53 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 94 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 51 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 52 |
| Sam Butler | HFFR | 48 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 55 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 45 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 76 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 100 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 125 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 89 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 76 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 85 | - | - | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 126 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 84 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 60 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 81 | - | - | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 61 |
| Willem Drew | R | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 78 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 73 | - | - | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 76 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 73 | - | - | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 78 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 68 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 50 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 68 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 62 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 68 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 85 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 59 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 26 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 58 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 32 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 60 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 62 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 55 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 54 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 52 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 77 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 52 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 51 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 37 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 48 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 60 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 44 | - | - | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 26 |