Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Sat 18 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

HAW by 40

HAW to win, 90% chance

HAW 90%10% PA

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 3

HIT Actual margin 3 · 36.8 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Mitch Lewis	CHF	1.5	-	-	65%	33%	10%	2%	0%	3.0
Nick Watson	FPR	1.5	-	-	66%	34%	11%	2%	0%	5.0
Calsher Dear	FF	1.4	-	-	64%	32%	10%	2%	0%	2.0
Connor Macdonald	INT	1.0	-	-	49%	15%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Ginnivan	INT	1.0	-	-	49%	15%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Dylan Moore	FPL	0.9	-	-	47%	13%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Sam Butler	HFFR	0.8	-	-	41%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
William McCabe	HFFL	0.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Jai Newcombe	RR	0.4	-	-	15%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Weddle	BPL	0.4	-	-	19%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Conor Nash	C	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lloyd Meek	INT	0.3	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ned Reeves	RK	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Cam Mackenzie	R	0.2	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Ward	INT	0.2	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Karl Amon	WR	0.2	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Massimo D'Ambrosio	INT	0.2	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Blake Hardwick	HBFR	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Flynn Perez	WL	0.1	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jarman Impey	BPR	0.1	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Battle	HBFL	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
James Sicily	CHB	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Barrass	FB	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Port Adelaide

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Mitch Georgiades	CHF	2.6	-	-	84%	64%	40%	19%	7%	2.0
Corey Durdin	INT	1.3	-	-	59%	25%	6%	1%	0%	1.0
Jack Whitlock	FF	1.2	-	-	58%	24%	6%	1%	0%	2.0
Jason Horne-Francis	C	1.2	-	-	58%	24%	5%	1%	0%	2.0
Todd Marshall	BPL	1.0	-	-	48%	14%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Joe Richards	FPR	0.8	-	-	39%	8%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Joe Berry	HFFR	0.7	-	-	34%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Dante Visentini	INT	0.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Byrne-Jones	FPL	0.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Lai	INT	0.4	-	-	16%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Willem Drew	R	0.4	-	-	15%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Zak Butters	RR	0.4	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Christian Moraes	HFFL	0.3	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ewan Mackinlay	WL	0.3	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Jacob Wehr	WR	0.3	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jordon Sweet	RK	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Miles Bergman	BPR	0.3	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jase Burgoyne	HBFL	0.2	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Ollie Wines	INT	0.2	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Kane Farrell	HBFR	0.1	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Aliir Aliir	CHB	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachie Jones	FB	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Logan Evans	INT	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0