AFL · ROUND 6 · MARVEL STADIUM
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 40
HAW to win, 90% chance
HAW 90%10% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 3
HIT Actual margin 3 · 36.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | C | 4.9 | - | - | 78% | 64% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 8.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 3.7 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 2.6 | - | - | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.0 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WL | 2.0 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 1.6 | - | - | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.6 | - | - | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| William McCabe | HFFL | 1.5 | - | - | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 1.4 | - | - | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.3 | - | - | 82% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 72% | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 3.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.0 | - | - | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 2.7 | - | - | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 2.5 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 2.5 | - | - | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.0 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 1.9 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 1.9 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 1.6 | - | - | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.4 | - | - | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 1.3 | - | - | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |