NFL · WEEK 6 · GEHA FIELD AT ARROWHEAD STADIUM
Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Chargers
Sun 18 Oct 2026, 3:25pm CDT (venue time)
IN TESTINGIn testing. The NFL model is new; its record is short and still being checked.
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
KC by 7.8
KC to win, 75% chance
KC 75%25% LAC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
KC by 16.0
HIT Actual margin 16.0 · 8.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
8 Oct 2026
IN TESTING In testing. The NFL model is new; its record is short and still being checked.
Fantasy (PPR): the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Kansas City Chiefs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 10+ | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III PROJECTED | RB | 18.4 | 13.9 to 22.9 | 3.9 to 32.9 | 85% | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 27.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.6 | 13.2 to 22.0 | 3.4 to 31.8 | 83% | 61% | 38% | 22% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 10.5 |
| Travis Kelce PROJECTED | TE | 10.3 | 6.7 to 13.8 | 0.0 to 21.8 | 50% | 29% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 9.3 |
| Xavier Worthy PROJECTED | WR | 8.1 | 4.9 to 11.4 | 0.0 to 18.6 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.3 |
| Noah Gray PROJECTED | TE | 3.6 | 1.2 to 6.0 | 0.0 to 11.4 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.3 |
| Emmett Johnson PROJECTED | RB | 3.4 | 1.0 to 5.8 | 0.0 to 11.1 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.4 |
| Brashard Smith PROJECTED | RB | 2.2 | 0.1 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 8.8 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Justin Watson PROJECTED | WR | 2.2 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 8.9 | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jalen Royals PROJECTED | WR | 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 8.3 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.4 |
| Andrew Armstrong PROJECTED | WR | 1.6 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 7.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.3 |
| Cyrus Allen PROJECTED | WR | 0.6 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.7 |
| Jared Wiley PROJECTED | TE | 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jake Briningstool PROJECTED | TE | 0.3 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben VanSumeren PROJECTED | RB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nikko Remigio PROJECTED | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Los Angeles Chargers
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 10+ | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB | 12.8 | 8.9 to 16.7 | 0.3 to 25.3 | 62% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 8.8 |
| Omarion Hampton PROJECTED | RB | 7.4 | 4.2 to 10.5 | 0.0 to 17.5 | 32% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.9 |
| Quentin Johnston PROJECTED | WR | 6.8 | 3.7 to 9.8 | 0.0 to 16.6 | 33% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 6.7 |
| Ladd McConkey PROJECTED | WR | 6.4 | 3.5 to 9.4 | 0.0 to 16.1 | 31% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.7 |
| Kimani Vidal PROJECTED | RB | 5.2 | 2.4 to 8.0 | 0.0 to 14.1 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell PROJECTED | RB | 4.4 | 1.8 to 7.1 | 0.0 to 12.9 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.4 |
| Oronde Gadsden II PROJECTED | TE | 3.9 | 1.4 to 6.4 | 0.0 to 12.0 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.7 |
| Theo Wease Jr. PROJECTED | WR | 3.9 | 1.4 to 6.4 | 0.0 to 11.9 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling PROJECTED | WR | 3.0 | 0.7 to 5.3 | 0.0 to 10.3 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Kolar PROJECTED | TE | 2.6 | 0.4 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 9.6 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brenen Thompson PROJECTED | WR | 1.7 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 7.9 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith PROJECTED | WR | 1.4 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.2 |
| Scott Matlock PROJECTED | RB | 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hayden Rucci PROJECTED | TE | 0.6 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Derius Davis PROJECTED | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.4 |