AFL · ROUND 6 · MCG
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 64% chance
MEL 36%64% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 25.1 | - | - | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 5% | 20.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 23.0 | - | - | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | 22.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.4 | - | - | 91% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 21.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 18.9 | - | - | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | HBFR | 17.2 | - | - | 67% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ed Langdon | R | 16.8 | - | - | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 16.3 | - | - | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 15.8 | - | - | 57% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.1 | - | - | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 13.8 | - | - | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFL | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 13.7 | - | - | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.1 | - | - | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jai Culley | WR | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 11.9 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 11.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.4 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 10.3 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jack Henderson | INT | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 27.8 | - | - | 98% | 90% | 68% | 36% | 12% | 31.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 27.8 | - | - | 98% | 90% | 68% | 36% | 12% | 26.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 26.9 | - | - | 98% | 87% | 62% | 30% | 9% | 15.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.9 | - | - | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 21.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 20.9 | - | - | 86% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 20.9 | - | - | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 20.0 | - | - | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 19.1 | - | - | 78% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 18.8 | - | - | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 18.5 | - | - | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 15.6 | - | - | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.7 | - | - | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 13.9 | - | - | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Noah Answerth | HBFR | 13.4 | - | - | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Logan Morris | INT | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 9.9 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 9.2 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 8.4 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |