Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

BRI by 10

BRI to win, 64% chance

MEL 36%64% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

MEL by 2

MISS Actual margin 2 · 12.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Max Gawn	RK	109	-	-	95%	88%	78%	64%	48%	93
Jack Steele	C	102	-	-	91%	83%	70%	54%	37%	87
Kysaiah Pickett	FPR	95	-	-	86%	74%	59%	42%	26%	80
Caleb Windsor	INT	72	-	-	53%	35%	20%	9%	4%	48
Kade Chandler	HFFL	71	-	-	52%	34%	19%	9%	3%	88
Ed Langdon	R	70	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	103
Bayley Fritsch	FPL	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	62
Xavier Lindsay	HBFR	68	-	-	46%	28%	14%	6%	2%	-
Harvey Langford	RR	66	-	-	42%	24%	12%	5%	2%	99
Jake Lever	FB	66	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	52
Harry Sharp	HFFR	65	-	-	40%	23%	11%	4%	2%	52
Jacob van Rooyen	CHF	62	-	-	34%	19%	8%	3%	1%	68
Tom Sparrow	HBFL	62	-	-	34%	18%	8%	3%	1%	63
Koltyn Tholstrup	WL	61	-	-	33%	18%	8%	3%	1%	73
Brody Mihocek	FF	60	-	-	32%	16%	7%	2%	1%	58
Jai Culley	WR	59	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	82
Luker Kentfield	INT	59	-	-	29%	15%	6%	2%	1%	-
Xavier Taylor	INT	59	-	-	29%	15%	6%	2%	1%	36
Daniel Turner	BPL	56	-	-	23%	11%	4%	1%	0%	81
Harrison Petty	CHB	54	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	46
Max Heath	INT	54	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	16
Bailey Laurie	INT	50	-	-	15%	6%	2%	0%	0%	39
Blake Howes	BPR	50	-	-	15%	6%	2%	0%	0%	51
Jack Henderson	INT	50	-	-	15%	6%	2%	0%	0%	-
Latrelle Pickett	INT	45	-	-	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%	39
Matthew Jefferson	INT	44	-	-	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%	31

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Will Ashcroft	C	100	-	-	90%	80%	66%	50%	33%	100
Lachie Neale	R	94	-	-	85%	73%	57%	40%	25%	97
Josh Dunkley	RR	92	-	-	83%	70%	54%	37%	22%	83
Hugh McCluggage	INT	91	-	-	82%	69%	52%	35%	21%	66
Zac Bailey	INT	86	-	-	75%	60%	42%	26%	14%	39
Jarrod Berry	WR	80	-	-	67%	49%	32%	18%	8%	32
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	80	-	-	68%	50%	33%	18%	9%	77
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	78	-	-	64%	46%	29%	16%	7%	105
Sam Draper	FPL	74	-	-	57%	39%	23%	11%	5%	48
Keidean Coleman	BPL	73	-	-	56%	37%	22%	10%	4%	80
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	73	-	-	55%	37%	21%	10%	4%	94
Darcy Fort	RK	71	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	-
Cam Rayner	FF	69	-	-	48%	30%	16%	7%	3%	68
Bruce Reville	WL	64	-	-	38%	22%	10%	4%	1%	84
Logan Morris	INT	61	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	76
Ryan Lester	BPR	60	-	-	31%	16%	7%	2%	1%	60
Noah Answerth	HBFR	59	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	63
Harris Andrews	FB	58	-	-	27%	13%	5%	2%	0%	102
Kai Lohmann	INT	57	-	-	26%	13%	5%	2%	0%	49
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	56	-	-	25%	12%	5%	2%	0%	74
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	52	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	68
Oscar Allen	CHF	52	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	43
James Tunstill	INT	50	-	-	15%	6%	2%	0%	0%	-
Shadeau Brain	INT	45	-	-	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%	-
Ty Gallop	FPR	42	-	-	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%	38
Zane Zakostelsky	INT	40	-	-	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%	36