Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

BRI by 10

BRI to win, 64% chance

MEL 36%64% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

MEL by 2

MISS Actual margin 2 · 12.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Bayley Fritsch	FPL	2.4	-	-	81%	60%	34%	15%	4%	2.0
Brody Mihocek	FF	2.2	-	-	80%	56%	30%	12%	3%	2.0
Jacob van Rooyen	CHF	1.7	-	-	70%	40%	16%	4%	1%	3.0
Kysaiah Pickett	FPR	1.7	-	-	71%	42%	17%	4%	1%	0.0
Max Heath	INT	1.1	-	-	55%	21%	4%	0%	0%	0.0
Harry Sharp	HFFR	0.8	-	-	43%	10%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Kade Chandler	HFFL	0.8	-	-	42%	9%	1%	0%	0%	3.0
Ed Langdon	R	0.7	-	-	36%	6%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jai Culley	WR	0.7	-	-	35%	6%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Matthew Jefferson	INT	0.7	-	-	37%	6%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Bailey Laurie	INT	0.6	-	-	32%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Harrison Petty	CHB	0.6	-	-	29%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Henderson	INT	0.6	-	-	32%	4%	0%	0%	0%	-
Luker Kentfield	INT	0.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	-
Xavier Taylor	INT	0.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Steele	C	0.5	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Koltyn Tholstrup	WL	0.5	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Latrelle Pickett	INT	0.5	-	-	25%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Max Gawn	RK	0.5	-	-	23%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Harvey Langford	RR	0.4	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	3.0
Caleb Windsor	INT	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Sparrow	HBFL	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Xavier Lindsay	HBFR	0.3	-	-	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Blake Howes	BPR	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Daniel Turner	BPL	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jake Lever	FB	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Logan Morris	INT	2.2	-	-	79%	55%	29%	11%	3%	3.0
Cam Rayner	FF	1.7	-	-	70%	40%	16%	4%	0%	2.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	1.7	-	-	69%	40%	15%	4%	0%	1.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	1.6	-	-	68%	37%	13%	3%	0%	3.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.6	-	-	68%	37%	13%	3%	0%	1.0
Zac Bailey	INT	1.4	-	-	64%	32%	10%	2%	0%	0.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	1.1	-	-	55%	21%	4%	0%	0%	1.0
Hugh McCluggage	INT	0.7	-	-	34%	5%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Sam Draper	FPL	0.7	-	-	37%	7%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	0.6	-	-	31%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Will Ashcroft	C	0.5	-	-	27%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Bruce Reville	WL	0.4	-	-	19%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
James Tunstill	INT	0.4	-	-	17%	1%	0%	0%	0%	-
Jarrod Berry	WR	0.4	-	-	16%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachie Neale	R	0.4	-	-	14%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Shadeau Brain	INT	0.4	-	-	17%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Josh Dunkley	RR	0.3	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	0.3	-	-	14%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Zane Zakostelsky	INT	0.3	-	-	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Fort	RK	0.2	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	0.1	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	0.1	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Harris Andrews	FB	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Noah Answerth	HBFR	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	0.0	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0