AFL · ROUND 6 · MCG
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 10
BRI to win, 64% chance
MEL 36%64% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 7.3 | - | - | 86% | 78% | 66% | 54% | 40% | 5.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 6.1 | - | - | 78% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.8 | - | - | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.8 | - | - | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.8 | - | - | 63% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 4.7 | - | - | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 4.6 | - | - | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 9.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 4.4 | - | - | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 4.2 | - | - | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 4.0 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 3.5 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 3.2 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFL | 3.2 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 3.0 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jai Culley | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Xavier Taylor | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Henderson | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.4 | - | - | 81% | 69% | 56% | 42% | 29% | 12.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.2 | - | - | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | 7.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 5.5 | - | - | 72% | 58% | 43% | 28% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 5.4 | - | - | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 5.1 | - | - | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 9.0 |
| Noah Answerth | HBFR | 5.1 | - | - | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 12% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 5.0 | - | - | 66% | 50% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 9.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 5.0 | - | - | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 11.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.7 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.6 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 8.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 3.4 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 9.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.0 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 2.9 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 2.6 | - | - | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |