AFL · ROUND 6 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 19 Apr 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 26
NM to win, 80% chance
NM 80%20% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 75
HIT Actual margin 75 · 49.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McDonald | INT | 7.2 | - | - | 86% | 77% | 66% | 53% | 39% | 9.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 5.4 | - | - | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 5.2 | - | - | 68% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Toby Pink | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | - |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.1 | - | - | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 8.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.9 | - | - | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.7 | - | - | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 60% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | - |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 4.6 | - | - | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.3 | - | - | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.0 | - | - | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.9 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 3.9 | - | - | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 3.9 | - | - | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 9.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 3.8 | - | - | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.6 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 3.4 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 11.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 3.0 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.0 | - | - | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 5.9 | - | - | 76% | 64% | 49% | 35% | 22% | 8.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 5.0 | - | - | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 5.0 | - | - | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 6.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 4.7 | - | - | 62% | 46% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 8.0 |
| Sam Banks | WL | 4.2 | - | - | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 3.4 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.1 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WR | 3.1 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 3.0 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jonty Faull | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 2.8 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 2.6 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | FF | 2.6 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 2.5 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.4 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 1.7 | - | - | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |