AFL · ROUND 6 · SCG
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Fri 17 Apr 2026, 7:50pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 75% chance
SYD 75%25% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 20.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McInerney | R | 23.3 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 26.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 23.1 | - | - | 97% | 77% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 21.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 22.3 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 28.0 |
| Chad Warner | RR | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 26.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 34.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.5 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Riley Bice | BPR | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 18.2 | - | - | 81% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 18.0 | - | - | 80% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 16.7 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFL | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 15.7 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFR | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 13.2 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 12.2 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 31.1 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 26.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 29.2 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 81% | 47% | 16% | 29.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.1 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 80% | 46% | 16% | 37.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 27.4 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 70% | 33% | 9% | 29.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 20.0 | - | - | 90% | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 18.9 | - | - | 85% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 18.8 | - | - | 84% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 18.1 | - | - | 80% | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 15.8 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 15.8 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 15.0 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 13.6 | - | - | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 13.2 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Toby Bedford | CHF | 12.8 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPL | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 8.8 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |