AFL · ROUND 6 · SCG
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Fri 17 Apr 2026, 7:50pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 75% chance
SYD 75%25% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 20.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Bice | BPR | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 7.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 12.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Chad Warner | RR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.2 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 1.4 | - | - | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 7.7 | - | - | 95% | 88% | 78% | 65% | 51% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 6.7 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 36% | 4.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 31% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 8.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 2.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 1.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 5.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | - |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Toby Bedford | CHF | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |