AFL · ROUND 7 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 72% chance
BRI 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: BRI by 17
← BRI by 60+drawADE by 60+ →
Half the time: BRI by 37 to ADE by 49 times in 10: BRI by 74 to ADE by 41
RESULT
BRI by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 | 25.1 to 33.3 | 18.9 to 39.5 | 98% | 92% | 76% | 42% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 27.6 | 23.6 to 31.6 | 17.6 to 37.6 | 98% | 88% | 66% | 31% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 27.0 | 23.0 to 31.0 | 17.1 to 36.9 | 97% | 88% | 64% | 30% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.6 | 87% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 76% | 38% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 51% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lincoln McCarthy | FPR | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ty Gallop | HBFR | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 24.5 | 20.7 to 28.3 | 15.1 to 33.9 | 95% | 79% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 24.5 | 20.7 to 28.3 | 15.1 to 33.9 | 95% | 79% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 23.4 | 19.7 to 27.1 | 14.2 to 32.6 | 95% | 74% | 39% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 63% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 21.4 | 17.8 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.2 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.5 to 30.1 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 17.7 | 14.5 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 70% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 62% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 60% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.4 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.4 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.2 | 4.4 to 17.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| James Borlase | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Toby Murray | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | FPL | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |