AFL · ROUND 7 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 72% chance
BRI 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: BRI by 17
← BRI by 60+drawADE by 60+ →
Half the time: BRI by 37 to ADE by 49 times in 10: BRI by 74 to ADE by 41
RESULT
BRI by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 71% | 54% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 91% | 83% | 71% | 55% | 35% | outside our 90% range: 159 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 96 | 81 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | FPR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ty Gallop | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 96 | 81 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| James Peatling | R | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 82 |
| Finnbar Maley | FPL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| James Borlase | INT | 39 | 27 to 51 | 10 to 68 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |