AFL · ROUND 7 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 72% chance
BRI 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: BRI by 17
← BRI by 60+drawADE by 60+ →
Half the time: BRI by 37 to ADE by 49 times in 10: BRI by 74 to ADE by 41
RESULT
BRI by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | INT | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 65% | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 36% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 36% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | FPR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walker | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.2 to 4.0 | 71% | 42% | 24% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 67% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 65% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Finnbar Maley | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |