AFL · ROUND 7 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 72% chance
BRI 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: BRI by 17
← BRI by 60+drawADE by 60+ →
Half the time: BRI by 37 to ADE by 49 times in 10: BRI by 74 to ADE by 41
RESULT
BRI by 52
HIT Actual margin 52 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.9 to 14.5 | 94% | 87% | 81% | 71% | 59% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.5 | 2.6 to 12.2 | 86% | 76% | 62% | 49% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.4 to 11.6 | 83% | 73% | 58% | 46% | 34% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 72% | 60% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | - |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 55% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ty Gallop | HBFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Shadeau Brain | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | - |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| James Borlase | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | - |
| James Peatling | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |