AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 27.2 | 23.2 to 31.2 | 17.3 to 37.1 | 97% | 90% | 66% | 33% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.8 | 22.8 to 30.8 | 16.9 to 36.7 | 97% | 88% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.7 | 21.8 to 29.6 | 16.0 to 35.4 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 22% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.4 to 31.4 | 90% | 62% | 28% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.6 | 69% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 62% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 56% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Archer May | FF | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.9 | 1.7 to 11.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 31.5 | 27.2 to 35.8 | 20.8 to 42.2 | 99% | 96% | 84% | 59% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.5 | 16.8 to 36.4 | 97% | 87% | 62% | 27% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.4 to 30.0 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 43.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 20.2 | 16.7 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.8 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 80% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.3 to 26.7 | 76% | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.4 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 56% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.4 | 7.2 to 21.8 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.8 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 3.2 to 14.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.4 to 13.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |