AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 71% | 54% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 62 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 82% | 70% | 53% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 128 | 83% | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Archer May | FF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 107 | 91 to 123 | 68 to 146 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 62% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| William Hayes | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |