AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 65% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer May | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |