AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reid | CHB | 7.6 | 5.4 to 9.8 | 2.8 to 12.4 | 87% | 77% | 64% | 50% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.4 to 11.6 | 83% | 73% | 58% | 46% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 72% | 60% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 40% | 25% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer May | FF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 78% | 68% | 55% | 42% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 78% | 68% | 55% | 42% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.8 | 76% | 65% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 72% | 60% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 72% | 60% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |