AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 27.2 / outside our 90% range: 42.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 100 / inside our 90% range: 134 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.8 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 103 / outside our 90% range: 62 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.7 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 22.4 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 12.3 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 8.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Archer May | FF | 6.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 17 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 31.5 / inside our 90% range: 42.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 107 / inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 26.6 / inside our 90% range: 35.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 21.2 / outside our 90% range: 43.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 79 / outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.5 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 20.2 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 15.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 14.5 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 12.4 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| William Hayes | INT | 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 7.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 39 |