AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Essendon v Collingwood
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 3:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 74% chance
ESS 26%74% COL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: COL by 19
← ESS by 60+drawCOL by 60+ →
Half the time: ESS by 2 to COL by 399 times in 10: ESS by 39 to COL by 76
RESULT
COL by 77
HIT Actual margin 77 · 58.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 69% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 56% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Archer May | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Crisp | WL | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 56% | 42% | 24% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 56% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 56% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | RR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |