AFL · ROUND 7 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Carlton
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 28
FRE to win, 83% chance
FRE 83%17% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: FRE by 28
← FRE by 60+drawCAR by 60+ →
Half the time: FRE by 49 to FRE by 89 times in 10: FRE by 86 to CAR by 29
RESULT
FRE by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 14.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 29.0 | 24.9 to 33.1 | 18.8 to 39.2 | 98% | 91% | 75% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.7 | 16.1 to 35.5 | 96% | 84% | 56% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.3 | 95% | 80% | 46% | 17% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.5 to 30.1 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.4 to 30.0 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.8 | 87% | 60% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPL | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 82% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.3 | 71% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 58% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | CHF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 1.9 to 12.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.3 | 25.2 to 33.4 | 19.0 to 39.6 | 98% | 92% | 76% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.1 | 96% | 84% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 25.1 | 21.3 to 28.9 | 15.5 to 34.7 | 95% | 82% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.0 | 19.3 to 26.7 | 13.8 to 32.2 | 95% | 72% | 35% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Oliver Florent | WL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Cooper Lord | RR | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 80% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Nick Haynes | HBFL | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 76% | 38% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zac Williams | FPL | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 17.7 | 14.5 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 70% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Will Hayward | FF | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.9 to 17.9 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ashton Moir | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 3.2 to 14.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |