AFL · ROUND 7 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Carlton
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 28
FRE to win, 83% chance
FRE 83%17% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: FRE by 28
← FRE by 60+drawCAR by 60+ →
Half the time: FRE by 49 to FRE by 89 times in 10: FRE by 86 to CAR by 29
RESULT
FRE by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 14.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 112 | 96 to 128 | 72 to 152 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 91% | 83% | 71% | 55% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 82% | 70% | 53% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Murphy Reid | FPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jye Amiss | CHF | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 99 | 84 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 51% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 60 to 136 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Oliver Florent | WL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cooper Lord | RR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | - |
| Nick Haynes | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Zac Williams | FPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Will Hayward | FF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Ashton Moir | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |