AFL · ROUND 7 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Carlton
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 28
FRE to win, 83% chance
FRE 83%17% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: FRE by 28
← FRE by 60+drawCAR by 60+ →
Half the time: FRE by 49 to FRE by 89 times in 10: FRE by 86 to CAR by 29
RESULT
FRE by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 14.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 85% | 75% | 61% | 48% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 79% | 65% | 50% | 37% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 69% | 58% | 44% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 69% | 58% | 44% | 27% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | CHF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | - |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.5 | 2.6 to 12.2 | 86% | 76% | 62% | 49% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Haynes | HBFL | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 85% | 75% | 61% | 48% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | WL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | - |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Lord | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ashton Moir | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |