AFL · ROUND 7 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Carlton
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 28
FRE to win, 83% chance
FRE 83%17% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: FRE by 28
← FRE by 60+drawCAR by 60+ →
Half the time: FRE by 49 to FRE by 89 times in 10: FRE by 86 to CAR by 29
RESULT
FRE by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 14.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 29.0 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 101 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 21.7 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 87 / outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 21.3 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 21.0 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Murphy Reid | FPL | 20.5 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 112 / inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.7 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 66 / outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 14.8 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 13.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 11.6 / - | 2.2 / - | 4.6 / - | 2.0 / - | 65 / - |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jye Amiss | CHF | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.3 / inside our 50% range: 32.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 135 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.5 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 25.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Oliver Florent | WL | 21.7 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cooper Lord | RR | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 19.2 / - | 0.2 / - | 5.6 / - | 2.4 / - | 77 / - |
| Nick Haynes | HBFL | 18.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Zac Williams | FPL | 18.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 17.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPR | 15.9 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 14.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.6 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Will Hayward | FF | 12.4 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Ashton Moir | INT | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Liam Reidy | RK | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 41 / outside our 90% range: 11 |