AFL · ROUND 7 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 70% chance
GWS 70%30% NM
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GWS by 15
← GWS by 60+drawNM by 60+ →
Half the time: GWS by 36 to NM by 69 times in 10: GWS by 72 to NM by 42
RESULT
GWS by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 29.0 | 24.9 to 33.1 | 18.8 to 39.2 | 98% | 91% | 75% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.4 | 18.2 to 38.4 | 98% | 89% | 71% | 36% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.4 | 18.2 to 38.4 | 98% | 89% | 71% | 36% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 27.8 | 23.8 to 31.8 | 17.8 to 37.8 | 98% | 88% | 68% | 33% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 83% | 51% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.6 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 64% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 61% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Brent Daniels | INT | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 58% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFR | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Aaron Cadman | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPR | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | FPL | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.2 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| James Leake | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 32.8 | 28.4 to 37.2 | 21.9 to 43.7 | 99% | 97% | 87% | 66% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 29.0 | 24.9 to 33.1 | 18.8 to 39.2 | 98% | 91% | 75% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 26.4 | 22.5 to 30.3 | 16.6 to 36.2 | 96% | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.7 | 16.1 to 35.5 | 96% | 84% | 56% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 78% | 43% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 96% | 76% | 40% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.6 | 69% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.4 | 59% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Toby Pink | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 23% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |