AFL · ROUND 7 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 70% chance
GWS 70%30% NM
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GWS by 15
← GWS by 60+drawNM by 60+ →
Half the time: GWS by 36 to NM by 69 times in 10: GWS by 72 to NM by 42
RESULT
GWS by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 91% | 83% | 71% | 55% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 82% | 70% | 53% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 97 | 82 to 112 | 59 to 135 | 89% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 87% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Brent Daniels | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFR | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Jesse Hogan | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Aaron Cadman | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| James Leake | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Toby Bedford | FPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Oliver Hannaford | FPL | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 115 | 99 to 131 | 75 to 155 | 97% | 93% | 84% | 73% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 66 to 144 | 93% | 85% | 74% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 99 | 84 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 51% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 145 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 97 | 82 to 112 | 59 to 135 | 89% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Tom Powell | C | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Toby Pink | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |