AFL · ROUND 7 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 70% chance
GWS 70%30% NM
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GWS by 15
← GWS by 60+drawNM by 60+ →
Half the time: GWS by 36 to NM by 69 times in 10: GWS by 72 to NM by 42
RESULT
GWS by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Hogan | INT | 2.7 | 1.8 to 3.6 | 0.5 to 4.9 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | INT | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 74% | 49% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 51% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Brent Daniels | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 65% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| James Leake | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 78% | 56% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 51% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 65% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Pink | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |