AFL · ROUND 7 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 70% chance
GWS 70%30% NM
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GWS by 15
← GWS by 60+drawNM by 60+ →
Half the time: GWS by 36 to NM by 69 times in 10: GWS by 72 to NM by 42
RESULT
GWS by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 72% | 60% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 69% | 58% | 44% | 27% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brent Daniels | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | FPL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| James Leake | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 71% | 58% | 46% | 30% | 20% | - |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Pink | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 55% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 55% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | - |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |