AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.1 | 22.2 to 30.0 | 16.4 to 35.8 | 96% | 86% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 63% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 20.2 | 16.7 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.8 | 82% | 49% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.6 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.7 | 79% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.1 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.4 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.2 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 62% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.4 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.3 to 20.3 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.4 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 28.9 | 24.8 to 33.0 | 18.7 to 39.1 | 98% | 91% | 74% | 40% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.4 | 17.4 to 37.4 | 97% | 90% | 66% | 34% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 27.0 | 23.0 to 31.0 | 17.1 to 36.9 | 97% | 88% | 64% | 30% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.2 to 35.6 | 96% | 84% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.1 | 96% | 84% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 63% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 80% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 61% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.2 | 4.4 to 17.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 1.9 to 12.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |