AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 128 | 83% | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Conor Nash | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 82% | 70% | 53% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 86% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 128 | 83% | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| John Noble | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Ben King | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Will Graham | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |