AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.4 to 4.6 | 80% | 57% | 32% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.1 to 3.7 | 76% | 45% | 22% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 2.7 | 1.8 to 3.6 | 0.5 to 4.9 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.2 to 4.0 | 71% | 42% | 24% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 51% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 65% | 26% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |