AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Battle | CHB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 78% | 68% | 55% | 42% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 69% | 58% | 44% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 40% | 25% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |