AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.1 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 22.6 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 21.6 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 20.2 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Conor Nash | C | 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 19.3 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 19.0 / outside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 18.0 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 17.2 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 16.9 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 15.4 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 13.9 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 56 / outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 28.9 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 27.4 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 27.0 / inside our 50% range: 31.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 25.9 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 106 |
| John Noble | INT | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 22.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 19.2 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 16.7 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 15.5 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Will Graham | INT | 12.6 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 51 / outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Ben King | FF | 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 9.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 27 |