AFL · ROUND 7 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 64% chance
HAW 64%36% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: HAW by 10
← HAW by 60+drawGCS by 60+ →
Half the time: HAW by 31 to GCS by 109 times in 10: HAW by 68 to GCS by 47
RESULT
HAW by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 69% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 50% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 56% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Finn Maginness | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Morrison | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Dalton | FPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.8 to 9.8 | 81% | 68% | 52% | 37% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 56% | 42% | 24% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 46% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 56% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |