AFL · ROUND 7 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 82% chance
PA 18%82% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GEE by 26
← PA by 60+drawGEE by 60+ →
Half the time: GEE by 5 to GEE by 479 times in 10: PA by 31 to GEE by 84
RESULT
PA by 30
MISS Actual margin 30 · 56.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 28.4 | 24.3 to 32.5 | 18.3 to 38.5 | 98% | 90% | 71% | 36% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 15.0 to 33.8 | 95% | 78% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.6 | 81% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.1 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 61% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.3 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.3 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.6 | 2.7 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.2 | 2.5 to 13.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.6 | 26.4 to 34.8 | 20.1 to 41.1 | 99% | 94% | 82% | 52% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 29.4 | 25.3 to 33.5 | 19.1 to 39.7 | 98% | 92% | 76% | 43% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.2 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.0 | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFR | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 56% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | CHB | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.4 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oliver Henry | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |