AFL · ROUND 7 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 82% chance
PA 18%82% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GEE by 26
← PA by 60+drawGEE by 60+ →
Half the time: GEE by 5 to GEE by 479 times in 10: PA by 31 to GEE by 84
RESULT
PA by 30
MISS Actual margin 30 · 56.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 91% | 83% | 71% | 55% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 128 | 83% | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Willem Drew | R | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | - |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 112 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 114 | 98 to 130 | 74 to 154 | 97% | 92% | 84% | 72% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Max Holmes | R | 109 | 93 to 125 | 69 to 149 | 96% | 89% | 79% | 65% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| James Worpel | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Oliver Henry | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |