AFL · ROUND 7 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats
Sat 25 Apr 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 82% chance
PA 18%82% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: GEE by 26
← PA by 60+drawGEE by 60+ →
Half the time: GEE by 5 to GEE by 479 times in 10: PA by 31 to GEE by 84
RESULT
PA by 30
MISS Actual margin 30 · 56.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.9 to 12.7 | 87% | 78% | 67% | 54% | 42% | - |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.8 | 85% | 74% | 60% | 47% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 40% | 25% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 51% | 40% | 21% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.8 | 76% | 65% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 76% | 60% | 46% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 69% | 58% | 44% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | CHB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 64% | 49% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 55% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11% | - |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |