AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 22.0 / - | 0.2 / - | 6.8 / - | 1.5 / - | 89 / - |
| Dion Prestia | C | 21.0 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 17.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 15.5 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 14.6 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 12.9 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 9.4 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 8.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 8.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 59 / outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 23.3 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 21.5 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 89 / outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.5 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.3 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 16.2 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 16.0 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 14.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 13.7 / outside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 60 / outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 13.2 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 7.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Max Heath | INT | 7.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 50 |