AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.1 | 96% | 84% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | - |
| Dion Prestia | C | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.8 | 87% | 60% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.7 to 27.5 | 80% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 64% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.3 to 20.3 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.4 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.9 to 17.9 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.6 | 2.7 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 1.9 to 12.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 1.6 to 11.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.5 | 95% | 74% | 38% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.1 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.3 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.8 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.4 to 13.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.3 to 13.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |