AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | - |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 106 | 90 to 122 | 67 to 145 | 94% | 87% | 76% | 60% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jack Steele | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 86% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Max Heath | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |