AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 67% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 51% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 65% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 41% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |