AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 42% | 32% | - |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 78% | 68% | 55% | 42% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.8 | 76% | 65% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.7 | 72% | 56% | 44% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |