AFL · ROUND 7 · MCG
Richmond v Melbourne
Fri 24 Apr 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 28
MEL to win, 83% chance
RIC 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: MEL by 28
← RIC by 60+drawMEL by 60+ →
Half the time: MEL by 7 to MEL by 499 times in 10: RIC by 30 to MEL by 85
RESULT
MEL by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 26.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 56% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.2 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 44% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 56% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 50% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Taylor | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |