AFL · ROUND 7 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 37
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: STK by 37
← STK by 60+drawWCE by 60+ →
Half the time: STK by 58 to STK by 169 times in 10: STK by 94 to WCE by 20
RESULT
STK by 101
HIT Actual margin 101 · 64.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.3 | 18.1 to 38.3 | 98% | 89% | 71% | 35% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.0 | 24.0 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.1 | 98% | 89% | 69% | 35% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.1 to 34.1 | 95% | 80% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 95% | 73% | 38% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.8 | 87% | 60% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | INT | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 60% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 60% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.4 | 7.2 to 21.8 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.8 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.2 | 4.4 to 17.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | R | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 88% | 61% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 13.0 to 30.8 | 87% | 59% | 26% | 6% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.4 | 12.9 to 30.7 | 87% | 58% | 25% | 6% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 76% | 38% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.2 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 58% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.3 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Matt Flynn | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.4 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.2 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |