AFL · ROUND 7 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 37
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: STK by 37
← STK by 60+drawWCE by 60+ →
Half the time: STK by 58 to STK by 169 times in 10: STK by 94 to WCE by 20
RESULT
STK by 101
HIT Actual margin 101 · 64.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 107 | 91 to 123 | 68 to 146 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 62% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 119 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 81% | 65% | 47% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 121 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 80 | 66 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Max Hall | C | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Darcy Wilson | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 92 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Matt Flynn | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Tom Cole | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 23% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 29 to 97 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 97 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |