AFL · ROUND 7 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 37
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: STK by 37
← STK by 60+drawWCE by 60+ →
Half the time: STK by 58 to STK by 169 times in 10: STK by 94 to WCE by 20
RESULT
STK by 101
HIT Actual margin 101 · 64.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 4.4 to 15.4 | 96% | 92% | 86% | 77% | 64% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 64% | 50% | 39% | 22% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 55% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 59% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | - |
| Darcy Wilson | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 76% | 61% | 46% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 66% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 57% | 47% | 33% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 60% | 40% | 31% | 17% | 11% | - |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 50% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 47% | 26% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 47% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 48% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 30% | 21% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 28% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Flynn | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |